Written on: December 2, 2024
Monday, December 2, 2024
Energy prices are trading mixed but mostly higher as of this writing on Monday, amid escalated tensions in the Middle East. Attacks continue in defiance of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon that took effect last week and expectations that OPEC+ will continue to delay planned output increases after postponing its meeting to December 5th, despite losses in US stock market index futures and a stronger US dollar.
Market participants are looking ahead to the US ISM Manufacturing Index, construction spending data and to the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for further direction.
The final November Nikkei/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for India came in at 56.5, a surprise downward revision from the 57.3 flash estimate. The final November Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI for Japan came in at 49.0, unchanged from October. The Asia Dow closed 0.64% higher, with the Nikkei in Japan adding 0.80%, the Hang Seng rising 0.65%, and the Shanghai Composite jumping 1.13% higher. In European news, French Manufacturing PMI came in at 43.1, seeing a marginal downward revision to the contractionary 43.2 flash estimate. Both the UK and German Manufacturing PMI also missed expectations, coming in at 48.0 and 43.0 respectively, while Eurozone Manufacturing PMI matched the initial print. In the UK, the Nationwide House Price Index for last month showed a 1.2% increase in house prices, well above the 0.2% expectation. Lastly, the Eurozone unemployment rate for October came in at 6.3%, matching expectations and holding steady after no change in September. With mixed economic news out of Europe, the UK FTSE 100 was up 0.13%, the German DAX had added 0.83%, and the French CAC 40 had gained 0.28%. Futures for the major US stock indexes were trading flat to lower with futures for the Dow shedding 0.09%, S&P 500 futures off by 0.17%, and Nasdaq futures having lost 0.18%. Also unsupportive for crude, the US dollar index was up 0.43% this morning.
The complex weakened on Friday as Brent crude fell 34 cents to $72.94 a barrel and WTI crude lost 72 cents to settle at $68.00 a barrel, gasoline futures fell 2.97 cents to hit $1.9437 per gallon, heating oil fell 1.06 cents to settle at $2.1930 per gallon and natural gas futures added 15.9 cents on Friday to settle at $3.368 per MMBTU.
As of this morning, the 1-5 day forecast sees well-below-normal temperatures across the eastern half of the country. The 6-10 day forecast is seeing mixed but mostly above-normal temperatures in both consuming regions.